Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions: Implications for Transport Planning

This paper explores the impacts that autonomous (also called self-driving, driverless or robotic) vehicles are likely to have on travel demands and transportation planning. It discusses autonomous vehicle benefits and costs, predicts their likely development and implementation based on experience with previous vehicle technologies, and explores how they will affect planning decisions such as optimal road, parking and public transit supply. The analysis indicates that some benefits, such as independent mobility for affluent non-drivers, may begin in the 2020s or 2030s, but most impacts, including reduced traffic and parking congestion (and therefore road and parking facility supply requirements), independent mobility for low-income people (and therefore reduced need to subsidize transit), increased safety, energy conservation and pollution reductions, will only be significant when autonomous vehicles become common and affordable, probably in the 2040s to 2060s, and some benefits may require prohibiting human-driven vehicles on certain roadways, which could take longer.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADA20 Metropolitan Policy, Planning, and Processes.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Litman, Todd
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2015-1-11 to 2015-1-15
• Date: 2015

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 15p
• Monograph Title: TRB 94th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Benefits; Costs; Impacts; Implementation; Intelligent vehicles; Transportation planning
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Vehicles and Equipment; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning; I91: Vehicle Design and Safety;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01557166
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 15-3326
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 18 2015 5:09PM