Modelling Car Trip Generation in the Developing World: The Tale of Two Cities

This paper investigates alternative strategies for modelling car trip generation in the context of the developing world. The proposed models particularly aim to capture the potential simultaneity between car trip generation and car ownership decisions, account for potential endogeneity, and deal with possible data limitations in the application context. In this regard, ordered response probit models of car trip generation (with and without the car ownership as an explanatory variable), are compared against combined models where car ownership and car trip decisions are estimated sequentially and jointly. The models are estimated using household survey data from two East African cities, Nairobi, Kenya and Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania. The model performances are evaluated by comparing the coefficient values, the goodness-of-fit measures and the transferability statistics. Results show that though it is possible to overcome the particular modelling challenges using appropriate model structures, each model has its own strengths and weaknesses. Despite the inability to achieve perfect spatial transferability, results show that most parameters are individually transferrable, signalling the need for further research on improving the transferability.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Alternate title: Modeling Car Trip Generation in the Developing World: Tale of Two Cities. This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABE90 Transportation in the Developing Countries.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Bwambale, Andrew
  • Choudhury, Charisma F
  • Sanko, Nobuhiro
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2015-1-11 to 2015-1-15
• Date: 2015

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 23p
• Monograph Title: TRB 94th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Automobile travel; Developing countries; Households; Probits; Surveys; Trip generation
• Geographic Terms: Dar es Salaam (Tanzania); Nairobi (Kenya)
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01557180
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 15-2108
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 18 2015 5:10PM