ESTUDIO DE LA MOTORIZACION EN MEXICO MEDIANTE LA DINAMICA DE POSESION VEHICULAR: DETERMINANTES MACRO Y MICROECONOMICOS

El presente estudio aborda la dinamica de car-ownership (o posesion vehicular) en Mexico, como aproximacion a la motorizacion. Se construye una serie de modelos sigmoidales para tratar de reproducir el comportamiento de la posesion vehicular a nivel nacional desde 1924 hasta 2011. Ademas, el valor de estado estacionario de la motorizacion, predicho por el modelo con mejor ajuste, se encuentra en el rango de valores de motorizacion propios de paises desarrollados. Posteriormente, en el caso de la aproximacion macroeconomica, el modelo estimado sugiere que la cantidad de autos particulares en circulacion, deberia ser mayor a la observada; en contraste, cuando se emplearon variables micro como explicativas, el nivel de car-ownershipes superior a lo que deberia ser a partir de la situacion cotidiana que confrontan los agentes. El resultado del macromodelo podria explicarse en funcion del papel que la desigualdad en el ingreso esta desempenando, tentativamente el grado actual de desigualdad podria restringir las posibilidades de crecimiento de la flota vehicular. En lo que se refiere al micromodelo definitivo, la creciente tendencia de adquirir autos usados provenientes de Estados Unidos, podria ser la causa de los niveles superiores con respecto a la flota vehicular que las condiciones microeconomicas parecen justificar. Se presentan conclusiones, figuras y cuadros. Abstract: This paper addresses the dynamics of car-ownership in Mexico. We build a series of sigmoid models to try to reproduce the behavior of national car-ownership from 1924 to 2011. Also, the steady-state value of motorization predicted by the model with best fit, is in the range of values of motorization used in developed countries. Later, explanatory variables were incorporated into micro and macro nature to try to explain the car-ownership tendencies, obtaining a reasonable adjustment, but markedly different results depending on the approach used. In the macroeconomic approximation, the estimated model suggests that the number of private cars in circulation should be greater than the observed; in contrast, when we used variables at the micro level, the results indicate that the size of the fleet is actually higher than it should be from the everyday situation faced by individual agents. The results of macromodel could be explained, tentatively, because the current degree of inequality could be a restriction to the potential growth of the vehicle fleet. As regards the final micromodel, the increasing trend to purchase used cars from the United States could be the cause of the size of vehicle fleet that microeconomic conditions seem to justify. Included conclusions, figures and tables.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/01887297
• Authors:
  • MOCTEZUMA NAVARRO, E M
• Publication Date: 2012

Language

• Spanish

Media Info

• Pagination: vi+94p
• Serial:
  • PUBLICACION TECNICA
  • Issue Number: 374
  • Publisher: Instituto Mexicano del Transporte
  • ISSN: 0188-7297

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Motor vehicles; Ownership; Vehicles
• Uncontrolled Terms: Use
• Geographic Terms: Mexico
• ITRD Terms: IMPACTO ECONOMICO; 8072: Mexico; 315: Motorizacion; 9084: Uso; 1255: Vehiculo
• Subject Areas: Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01503723
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Instituto Mexicano del Transporte
• Files: ITRD
• Created Date: Jan 15 2014 10:48AM