Collision Propensity Index for Unsignalized Intersections: Structural Equation Modeling Approach

The objective of this paper is to develop a quantitative collision propensity index (CPI) that captures the overall propensity of a given surrounding environment to cause accidents at un-signalized intersections. Using structural equation modeling, the index can be estimated from observed geometric, vehicular, driver-related, and traffic-related characteristics. Utilizing the California Department of Transportation's data repository, information on 4388 collisions occurring at 2709 different intersections was collected and processed. A statistically significant converging structural equation model was found reflecting the safety impact of different surrounding elements/dimensions on driving behavior: The CPI provides (a) a basis for quantifying the effects of the aforementioned characteristics on traffic safety and/or incident properties, (b) a basis for comparing the differences between the dimensions affecting collision propensity based on different exogenous measures’ classification schemes and (c) ranking the corresponding un-signalized intersections for improved safety performance. The framework and methodology used to develop this index has the potential to support safety policy analysis and decision making.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABJ80 Statistical Methods.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Schorr, Justin
  • Hamdar, Samer H
  • Vassallo, Terasa
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2013-1-13 to 2013-1-17
• Date: 2013

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 20p
• Monograph Title: TRB 92nd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crash risk forecasting; Highway safety; Methodology; Statistical analysis; Unsignalized intersections
• Geographic Terms: California
• Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I80: Accident Studies;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01477613
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 13-3915
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Apr 5 2013 4:47PM