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Developing Densely: Estimating the Effect of Subway Growth on New York City Land Uses

In the early 20th Century New York City grew rapidly in population and developed area. The subway system also grew rapidly to accommodate this new growth, but also as a concerted effort to decentralize residential population away from lower Manhattan. Using parcel level data this paper explores the co-development of the subway system and residential and commercial land uses using Granger causality models to estimate if transit growth led residential and commercial development or if subway expansion occurred as a reaction to residential and commercial densities. The results suggest that the subway network developed in an orderly fashion and grew densest in areas where residential and commercial development had already occurred. Though the transit system was built before land development in some areas, lagged station densities are weakly correlated with residential and commercial growth. This suggests that new subway stations often opened in areas already served by the system and that network growth often followed residential and commercial development. While the subway network acted as an agent of decentralization, routes and stations were sought in areas with established ridership demand. The implications of land use regulations and transit network density on residential and commercial land uses are discussed.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: DVD
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 16p
  • Monograph Title: TRB 90th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01333219
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 11-2113
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Mar 21 2011 2:13PM